Total bids
TxDOT bid data and pre-bid checks for Texas estimators.
Review public TxDOT competition, spread, and timing patterns, then estimate a baseline from public bid documents and check a planned bid against that baseline.
Projects
4,533
Unique projects in the active snapshotMedian win rate
20.5%
Active vendors with at least 10 bidsSingle bidder
8.4%
Projects with one bidder onlyClose losses <5%
1,758
Losing bids within five percent of winnerMedian spread
44.9%
Low-to-high spread on 3+ bidder jobsData overview
TxDOT market overview
Competition, spread, seasonality, and segment behavior from the current public snapshot. Definitions are attached to each chart.
Competition by district
Monthly letting volume
Win-rate bands
Close-loss bands
Spread percentiles
Segment comparison
District reference table
| District | Avg bidders | Projects | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Childress | 5.1 | 56 | Higher competition |
| Tyler | 5.0 | 134 | Higher competition |
| San Antonio | 4.9 | 205 | Higher competition |
| Yoakum | 4.9 | 264 | Higher competition |
| Austin | 4.8 | 219 | Higher competition |
| Houston | 4.5 | 355 | Higher competition |
| Wichita Falls | 4.5 | 110 | Higher competition |
| Brownwood | 4.4 | 88 | Higher competition |
| Dallas | 4.3 | 470 | Higher competition |
| Bryan | 4.3 | 231 | Higher competition |
| Waco | 4.1 | 192 | Higher competition |
| Fort Worth | 4.1 | 244 | Higher competition |
| Abilene | 4.1 | 120 | Higher competition |
| Atlanta | 3.9 | 122 | Lower competition |
| Paris | 3.8 | 269 | Lower competition |
| San Angelo | 3.7 | 96 | Lower competition |
| Corpus Christi | 3.7 | 219 | Lower competition |
| Beaumont | 3.6 | 184 | Lower competition |
| Odessa | 3.5 | 162 | Lower competition |
| Pharr | 3.5 | 114 | Lower competition |
| Lubbock | 3.5 | 124 | Lower competition |
| Lufkin | 3.5 | 200 | Lower competition |
| Maintenance Division | 3.3 | 37 | Lower competition |
| Laredo | 3.2 | 89 | Lower competition |
| Amarillo | 3.1 | 122 | Lower competition |
| El Paso | 2.6 | 107 | Lower competition |
Monthly reference table
| Month | Bid count |
|---|---|
| Jan | 340 |
| Feb | 359 |
| Mar | 542 |
| Apr | 357 |
| May | 317 |
| Jun | 401 |
| Jul | 369 |
| Aug | 524 |
| Sep | 405 |
| Oct | 361 |
| Nov | 330 |
| Dec | 228 |
Prediction tools
Pre-bid checks
Use manual mode if you already have an internal estimate. Use predict estimate mode if you want the tool to generate a baseline from public bid documents first. Required fields are marked clearly.
Models Accuracy
Win probability, predicted baseline: AUC 0.628, Log Loss 0.708, Brier 0.196.
Win probability, direct TxDOT estimate reference: AUC 0.795, Log Loss 0.418, Brier 0.134.
Baseline estimate: MdAPE 29.5%, Mean APE 41.6%.
Expected bidders: MAE 1.48, RMSE 2.00, Median AE 1.12 bidders.
AUC ranks stronger bids above weaker ones. Higher is better. Log Loss, Brier, MdAPE, Mean APE, MAE, and RMSE are lower-is-better error measures.
Prediction Mode
Check planned bid probability
Custom work
Request custom analysis or tools
Services: custom TxDOT bid analysis, analysis for data from other states, custom bidding and estimating tools, and general data analysis services.